Costing Public Transport Tenders

Assisting public transport operators to tender for government (passenger transport) or private sector (staff transport) is a service we offer for this niche market. The tender documents are voluminous and can be overwhelming
for smaller public transport operators. We have the skills, expertise and resources to compile and submit a tender on time that is compliant to the administrative and technical requirements, is competitively priced, and still provides the shareholders with a fair profit.

Providing a market related, tender price for a seven year contract requires insight into the public transport market, the economy of the area where the services are required, and an understanding of transport industry-related inflation, to name a few prominent risk drivers. The transport industry inflation is often higher than the general inflation rate as the industry is sensitive to fuel pricing and the Rand exchange rate against major currencies where the chassis and major components of the Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are sourced. In addition, all of the seven year contracts are net based, which means the operator takes the fare revenue risk.

The realisation that the formal public transport market requires more competitors to level the playing field and ultimately provide competitive prices that are underscored by supply and demand principles is growing, especially in the public sector. We therefore see this service offering expanding in the future. Green Square Consulting has assisted Litsamaiso (Pty) Ltd with tendering for the following contracts:

• Public Transport Operating Grant contracts for three areas in the Gauteng Province;
• Rea Vaya Phase 1A;
• Crew and ground staff transport services for the Airports Company of South Africa (ACSA);
• Routes where vehicle shortages occur from time to time for the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA); and 
• Staff transport services for Glencore Lion Smelter in Mpumalanga.

Integrated Public Transport Network Planning

Public transport planning is crucial for the functioning of our metropolitan areas and larger cities. Historically, the focus on public transport planning was cities throughout South Africa. In addition, the rapid-rail system, Gautrain, was introduced in the Gauteng Province in 2010.

Public transport serves mostly the captive user, i.e., the people that are dependent on public transport for the daily commute.  This market is familiar with public transport and understands the operations, routes, stops and frequencies without the information being publicly readily available. By contrast, for choice users, i.e. people that own a car, it is difficult  to access information on current service schedules, operating times, routes, fares and fare media. 

The sustainability of any public transport system envisaged in South Africa has to deal with the history of segregated planning as well as low population density. Segregated planning led to poor people living far from economic opportunities, and urban sprawl combined with low density human settlement developments makes public transport inefficient and expensive to operate. 

Integrated Public Transport Networks (IPTNs) have been planned and partially implemented at Local Authority level since 2007. The aim is to integrate the different modes into a single public transport network that provides for seamless inter-modal travel using one ticketing system. The intention is for the network to be under the control of the Planning Authority who will manage it by putting  the services to be operated on the network out to tender for the  private sector to operate. The Planning Authority will monitor the operations in terms of operator adherence to the timetable, routes and quality of the fleet. 

We have been involved with the planning and implementation of IPTNs at Project Management Unit (PMU) levels since 2009, and has specifically worked for the City of Tshwane, City of Ekurhuleni, City of Polokwane and Rustenburg Local Municipality.

Cost Benefit Analysis

Formalised Public Transport will always require financial support to sustain its operations. Often the benefit of a subsidised public transport system far outweighs the cost of the direct subsidy. Benefits to society include fewer private cars on the road, time savings due to reduced congestion, fewer  accidents, and less pollution (vehicle emissions) due to fewer cars.

Determining the net cost or benefit to society in general requires that all cost and benefits of the public transport intervention be calculated over the life cycle of the project.  Should the benefits outweigh the costs, the project has a net positive impact on society in general. This technique is used to determine the net impact of a project is referred to as Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA).

Green Square Consulting has been involved in the Cost Benefit Analysis for determining the best route alignment for the extensions of Gautrain for the Gautrain Management Agency.

Business Case Development

The development of a business case for any component of a public transport system is a necessity that is often overlooked. However, executed timeously and in sufficient detail with the necessary consultative process, it proves that the recommended solution is based on sound principles and that a thorough process was followed to arrive at the recommended solution. A business case is required when a problem presents itself and there are a number of potential solutions available to solve the problem. 

The typical steps to be followed include a high-level assessment of the options to be considered to solve the problem (optioneering approach), and the determination of the operational and functional requirements. 

Once these steps are completed to the satisfaction of the role-players, the process continues with the development of all possible options. Following this, the options are narrowed down and then scored based on a Multi Criteria Analysis which considers technical and feasibility criteria. This is usually followed by an Options Assessment workshop whereby the shortlisted options are scored on the Investment Objectives (usually informed by Government policy) and the technical and feasibility criteria. A preferred option should emerge from this workshop, which is then taken further in detailed design. 

Green Square Consulting has been working with Aurecon on the detailed business case development of the Whangaparāoa bus station in Auckland, New Zealand.

Public Transport Services Design

The design of public transport services on behalf of a Planning Authority is a crucial step in the process of contracting road-based public transport operators to provide service for a seven year period, as legislated in terms of the National Land Transport Act of 2009.  

The broad steps in designing the seven year contracts require that surveys be conducted in the area to determine the passenger demand, vehicle utilisation, operating times and routes to service the main Origin-Destination pairs. From the surveys, the vehicle utilisation, routes, operating times and the headways during peak and off-peak periods can be determined. A high-level scheduling exercise is required to determine the peak fleet requirement of the intended operations. The operational information is then costed, based on industry norms, to provide the Planning Authority with an indicative cost of the contract over the contracting period.  This exercise assists the Planning Authority to budget for the services over the contract period.

Green Square Consulting has designed bus contracts in the Secunda, and the Witbank/ Middelburg area for the Mpumalanga Department of Roads and Transport.

Date: April 2011– November 2012

Scope/Description: The Gauteng Department of Roads and Transport required a 25 year vison for the transport in the Province that in broader terms will map out the background, objectives, key initiatives and projects and key role-players that will be central to the implementation of the Plan over the next 25 years. The purpose of the plan is to enable the GDRT to regulate, plan and develop an efficient and well-integrated transport system that serves the public interest by enhancing mobility and delivering safe, secure, affordable and environmentally sustainable  public and private transport services.

Responsibilities: I was the technical lead, responsible for all aspects of public transport that was required to be addressed as part of the 25-year plan. As part of a team of subject matter experts, extensive collaboration was required to develop a Master Plan that was integrated with strategies that is aligned to reach a unified goal. My technical input included the establishment of the concept that focuses on the role of modes in a network hierarchy, the conceptual design of a Provincial Integrated Public Transport Network and the development of several strategies that aims to improve the overall public transport offering.

Photo by Kyle-Philip Coulson on Unsplash

Date: June 2015 – July 2016

Scope/Description: Dubai hosted the World Expo2020 and developed a transportation demand model specifically for the event. The modelling identified that an additional bus fleet would be required to transport the exhibitors and visitors for the duration of the Expo. It was determined that 800 additional buses would be required and the client required a determination of the optimal way to procure the fleet – outright purchase or full maintenance lease.

Responsibilities: My role was technical specialist responsible for the financial model. The cost implications for extending the operational life of current fleet (1 500 buses) had to be considered as the fleet acquisition program would be affected. The procurement programme of the additional buses was to co-inside with bus replacement cycle of the existing fleet as far as possible. A Multi-Criteria Analysis Model was developed with the client to assist in the decision making process.

Photo by Aleksey Smagin on Unsplash

Date: October 2012 – October 2013

Scope/Description:  The line 1b (first phase of the BRT) was gearing up for implementation and the CoT did not have an approved fare policy and fare structure for the BRT system. The brief was to develop the fare policy and fare structure for phase 1, and not only for Line 1b.

 Responsibilities: I had a combined role of Project Manager and technical specialist. The project was executed in three phases, namely fare status quo, fare policy and fare structure and fare tables. For the status quo on fares, the fares of existing modes was obtained from minibus taxi, rail and bus operators with which the proposed BRT services will compete. The fares were brought to a common denominator – fare/passenger/km for comparison purposes and this was used as basis to inform the fare structure and fare tables. The fare policy was developed, based on principles of fairness, affordability and sustainability. To determine the potential impact of the different fare structures on ridership and associated expected revenue, different fare scenario’s was tested in the demand model and then pulled through to the financial model.  A distance based fare, based on zones , with a maximum distance, was recommended for adoption by Council. The policy and fare structure was approved by Council before the start of operations of Line 1b.

Photo by James Lewis on Unsplash

Date: June 2009 – June 2012, August 2016 – May 2017, October 2017 – August 2018

Scope/Description: In 2007, Parliament approved the Department of Transport’s Public Transport Strategy and Action Plan,  which proposed a phased implementation of the Integrated Rapid Public Transport Networks with the initial aim to have IRPTN’s operational in 12 Cities and 6 Rural Districts by 2014. This Action Plan was based on 2 thrusts, namely accelerated modal upgrading and development of Integrated Rapid Public Transport Networks. This Action Plan shifted thew focus of cities as the majority of funds earmarked for public transport was channelled to IRPTN development and implementation.

June 2009 – June 2012

Responsibilities: I was seconded to City of Tshwane (CoT) for a period of 3 years after being appointed as Business Workstream Leader for the first Project Management Unit (PMU) for the BRT project. Integration and co-ordination between the different workstreams was crucial in the early stages of the project and assisted in getting a full understanding of the complexities of the project. I was responsible for drafting the Terms of Reference for refining the transportation model and developing a financial model for the project. I was part of the technical team that adjudicated the tenders and recommended the preferred bidder to the CoT. Once appointed, I was responsible for the overall project management of the consortium, measuring outputs against agreed milestones and payment.  The financial model required substantial technical input from myself as a BRT operations specialist in terms of overall costing and staffing levels for the model to be legitimate.

August 2016 – May 2017

Responsibilities: I was contracted as lead technical advisor in the Business Workstream of the PMU to review the Full Clearance Permanent Compensation (FCPC) Strategy, which was approved by CoT. This minibus taxi industry felt they had not been sufficiently consulted and the bus industry felt that they were ignored during the development of the FCPC.  My role was to workshop the FCPC again with the two stakeholder groups, and to update the compensation model used to determine the compensation to be paid to the affected operators for Line 1a. The compensation model was updated to allow for compensation to be paid for a section of the full route only – the last 7 km of a 35 km route where the BRT trunk line will operat6e from. I was the lead negotiator for the CoT in negotiating the compensation with the minibus taxi industry technical advisors and chairman of the affected associations.  Once negotiations was concluded and agreed, the process followed had to be communicated to the Department of Transport for final approval. That was received and the pay-out commenced in November 2016.

October 2017 – August 2018

Responsibilities: I was appointed as part of an Interim PMU, which was established to fill the void created between the ending of the previous PMU contract term and the appointment of a new PMU. During this period my role shifted to operations and commercial contract risks inherent to the business model adopted for managing the BRT system. Contracts flagged as high risk included the Bus Operating Company Agreement (BOCA), the Automated Fare Collection (AFC) contract, the Station Management Contact and the Call Centre through the PTMS that was deployed on the routes and in the buses at the time. To mitigate against the overall risks, the concept of Technical Notes was established to make the City and other PMU work streams aware of the commercial and financial risk of infrastructure limitations and ownership, the ongoing commercial risk with continuing with Tshwane Bus Service (TBS) in its current format and operations. Payment problems to the bus operating company was flagged and it was recommended that a zero based budget be implemented for the bus operating company whereby future payment will be done on actual expenses (invoices) as opposed to an approved budget.  In terms of compliance with the Municipal Finance Management Act and The development of a Provincial Land Transport Framework is a statutory requirement in terms of the National Land Transport Act and Council Resolutions, the ongoing payment of Interim Compensation to the affected minibus taxi associations since 2014 was flagged as irregular expenditure as it started in 2014 and was past its 3 year term.

Date: October 2019 – November 2019

Scope/Description: The Gautrain Rapid Rail Link, linking OR Tambo International Airport, Johannesburg and Tshwane, is the first and to date only high speed commuter train in Africa. It became operational in 2010, in time for the FIFA Soccer World Cup (OR Tambo to Sandton link) and fully operational for commuters in 2012.  The current operations is referred to as phase 1 and for the train to reach its full potential it is critical that the network be fully implemented. Projects of this nature requires massive committment6 from Government in terms of financial resources and as such government must be sure that the funds used to implement the service contributes the most to the economy and the overall benefits over the life cycle of the project outweighs the overall cost of the project.

Responsibilities: My role was technical lead and Subject Matter Expert (SME) responsible for updating the Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) model. The original CBA model was used to determine which phase (2 – 5) to consider for the extension. The CBA model indicated the phase linking Sandton Station to the west of Johannesburg and finally terminating in Soweto. I had to consider 8 different route alignments, update the construction costs estimates for each route alignment and determine the travel time savings over the life cycle of the project as each route had a different route length with different in train travelling times. The different route alignments were ranked based on their net benefit to the economy.

Date: March 2020 – November 2020

Scope/Description: The National Land Transport Act requires that the responsibility of planning and contracting subsidised public transport services be devolved to the lowest level of government. Although the NLTA was enacted in 2009, up to date this function is still performed by provincial government throughout South Africa. The City of Tshwane (CoT) is responsible for the largest portion of the subsidy budget in Gauteng and the majority of the subsidised contract operates across the provincial boundary into the City of Tshwane. Currently the City owns and manages its own municipal bus fleet and is responsible for the planning and monitoring of the BRT services, which is operated by the bus operating company on a Gross based contract.  The CoT embarked on a due diligence study to understand the impact of taking over the function, both in terms of human resources and financial implication to the City.

Responsibilities:  My role was technical lead and Subject Matter Expert (SME), responsible for the delivery of the total project. My responsibilities included the understanding of the current extent of the Public Transport Operating Grant (PTOG) services that is operated within and to the CoT, in addition to the extent of the BRT services and the Tshwane Bus Service being operated. The fact that CoT wants to become the Planning Authority responsible for public transport, and own a public transport operator, required special attention as an Planning Authority cannot be referee and player.  The project concluded with a high level evaluation and reporting on the City’s role in overseeing and managing the day to day operations as well as its commercial contract obligations in terms of the contracts with the different services providers 

Photo by Berke Citak on Unsplash

Date: November 2021  – ongoing

Scope/Description: Litsamaiso (Pty) Ltd is a private bus company that is operating one of the BRT lines in the City of Johannesburg. Ownership is 76% minibus taxi owners. The company wants to expand their market share and has taken a decision to tender for public transport and staff services whenever such opportunities come to the market.

Responsibilities: My role is the overall project manager that ensures that the required specialists are contracted for the specific tasks required to complete the tender on time, with a market related tender price that provides an industry profit to the shareholders. These types of tenders require compliance specialists and financial experts that can develop a financial model that support a business case with which financial institutions are comfortable with. My responsibility is managing the client expectations and co-ordination between client and technical experts to ensure a quality submission. In addition, I provide technical expertise (public transport costing, transport economics and operational scheduling) to the financial modellers.  The model need to be robust to test different scenarios, which is required close to tender finalisation. The financial model must be stable at this point. Compliance specialists are required to ensure the bid submission is in line with the tender specifications and that we are not disqualified on administrative technicalities. To date I have fulfilled this role for the following tenders:

• Gauteng Provincial Government for the Public Transport Operating Grant Contracts;
• City of Johannesburg for the Rea Vaya Phase 1A operations that has completed its first 12 year negotiated contract;
• PRASA for providing luxury coaches on routes where they experience shortage of buses;
• ACSA for ground and flight crew at the 3 international airports in South Africa in Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban; and
• Glencore staff transport services for their operations in Steelpoort at their Lion Smelter.

Photo by Luis Quintero on Unsplash

Date: February 2022 – March 2023

Scope/Description: The development of a Comprehensive Integrated Transport Plan (CITP) is a statutory requirement in terms of the National Land Transport Act. It requires a comprehensive update every 5-years with an annual review for the intermittent years. The project entailed the 5-year update and as such it was a departure from the last review of the previous update. The approach followed was to present the client with two scenarios, namely scenario one is basically business as usual (most implementation for private transport, limited for public transport and Non Motorised Transport) and scenario 2 attempt to change this mindset around by investing more in public transport and NMT and less so in private transport, with the important provision being that for a city to function optimally there is a need for both public and private transport.

Responsibilities: My role in the project was the lead for the funding workstream.  To get a better understanding of the funding of projects (source, budget and duration), the total funds allocated to transport related projects in the Stellenbosch Municipality was categorised per source of funding. This provided the client with useful information on what funds they receive from the Division of Revenue Act (DoRA), and what portion is allocated to transport, the Western Cape Government and its functional Departments and own funds. In addition, the latest Integrated Development Plan was used to guide the funding of projects that appear in the CITP. Projects that support the strategy proposed in the CITP, and not budgeted for in the IDP were identified and listed in the CITP. Projects that was in the IDP, that was not required anymore due to a shift in strategy, was identified as such and reason provided should these projects not be funded in future. My role was very much one of co-ordination amongst domain experts and facilitation with the client to obtain their latest, relevant and up to date budgets.